Nyob rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm xyoo 2020, tag nrho cov khoom siv raw khoom siv cobalt tag nrho yog 16,800 tons ntawm hlau, ib xyoos ib zaug txo qis ntawm 19%.Ntawm lawv, tag nrho cov ntshuam ntawm cobalt ore yog 0.01 lab tons ntawm hlau, 92% xyoo-rau-xyoo txo;tag nrho cov ntshuam ntawm cobalt ntub smelting nruab nrab cov khoom yog 15,800 tons, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ​​ntawm 15%;tag nrho cov ntshuam ntawm unwrought cobalt yog 0.08 lab tons ntawm hlau, nce 57% xyoo-rau-xyoo.

Kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi ntawm SMM cobalt khoom txij lub Tsib Hlis 8 txog Lub Xya Hli 31, 2020

Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm SMM

Tom qab nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli, qhov sib piv ntawm electrolytic cobalt rau cobalt sulfate maj mam nce mus rau 1, feem ntau yog vim qhov maj mam rov qab los ntawm kev thov rau cov khoom siv roj teeb.

SMM cobalt khoom sib piv tus nqi txij lub Tsib Hlis 8 txog rau Lub Xya Hli 31, 2020

Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm SMM

Tib yam uas txhawb nqa tus nqi nce txij lub Tsib Hlis mus rau Lub Rau Hli xyoo no yog South Africa qhov chaw nres nkoj kaw thaum lub Plaub Hlis, thiab cov khoom siv cobalt hauv tsev tau nruj txij lub Tsib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli.Txawm li cas los xij, lub hauv paus ntawm cov khoom lag luam smelted hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev tseem muaj ntau tshaj, thiab cobalt sulfate tau pib destock lub hli, thiab cov peev txheej tau txhim kho.Qhov kev thov qis qis tsis tau zoo dua, thiab qhov kev thov rau 3C digital electronics tau nkag mus rau lub caij nyoog rau kev yuav khoom, thiab tus nqi nce me me.

Txij li thaum nruab nrab Lub Xya Hli xyoo no, cov khoom txhawb nqa tus nqi nce ntxiv:

1. Cobalt raw khoom muab xaus:

Kev kis tus kabmob tshiab hauv tebchaws Africa yog qhov hnyav, thiab cov ntaub ntawv lees paub hauv thaj chaw tsuas tau tshwm sim ib zaug.Kev tsim khoom tsis tau cuam tshuam rau lub sijhawm tam sim no.Txawm hais tias kev tiv thaiv kab mob sib kis thiab kev tswj hwm hauv thaj chaw tsuas yog nruj thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev sib kis loj loj me me, kev ua lag luam tseem txhawj xeeb.

Tam sim no, South Africa qhov chaw nres nkoj muaj peev xwm muaj kev cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws.South Africa tam sim no yog lub tebchaws cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws hauv Africa.Tus naj npawb ntawm cov neeg mob uas tau lees paub tau tshaj 480,000, thiab tus naj npawb ntawm kev kuaj mob tshiab tau nce 10,000 ib hnub.Nws tau nkag siab tias txij li South Africa tau tshem qhov kev txwv rau lub Tsib Hlis 1, qhov chaw nres nkoj muaj peev xwm rov qab tau qeeb, thiab lub sijhawm xa khoom ntxov tshaj plaws tau xa tawm thaum nruab nrab Lub Tsib Hlis;qhov chaw nres nkoj muaj peev xwm txij lub Rau Hli mus txog Lub Xya Hli yog qhov pib tsuas yog 50-60% ntawm ib txwm muaj peev xwm;Raws li kev tawm tswv yim los ntawm cobalt raw khoom, Vim lawv txoj kev thauj mus los tshwj xeeb, lub sijhawm xa khoom ntawm cov neeg xa khoom tseem ceeb yog tib yam li lub sijhawm dhau los, tab sis tsis muaj kev txhim kho.Nws cia siab tias qhov xwm txheej yuav txuas ntxiv yam tsawg kawg ntawm ob mus rau peb lub hlis tom ntej;Qee cov neeg xa khoom 'lub sijhawm xa khoom lub Yim Hli tsis ntev los no tau ua rau tsis zoo, thiab lwm yam khoom thiab cobalt Raw cov ntaub ntawv tuav lub peev xwm tsawg ntawm South African ports.

Nyob rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm xyoo 2020, tag nrho cov khoom siv raw khoom siv cobalt tag nrho yog 16,800 tons ntawm hlau, ib xyoos ib zaug txo qis ntawm 19%.Ntawm lawv, tag nrho cov ntshuam ntawm cobalt ore yog 0.01 lab tons ntawm hlau, 92% xyoo-rau-xyoo txo;tag nrho cov ntshuam ntawm cobalt ntub smelting nruab nrab cov khoom yog 15,800 tons, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ​​ntawm 15%;tag nrho cov ntshuam ntawm unwrought cobalt yog 0.08 lab tons ntawm hlau.Kev nce ntawm 57% xyoo-rau-xyoo.

Tuam Tshoj tus cobalt raw khoom tuaj ntawm lub Ib Hlis 2019 txog Lub Yim Hli 2020

Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm SMM & Suav Kev Cai

Tsoom fwv African thiab kev lag luam yuav kho lawv cov neeg tawm tsam 'rubbing ore.Raws li kev lag luam xov xwm, txij li lub Yim Hli xyoo no, nws yuav tswj hwm tag nrho thiab tswj cov khoom rub tawm.Lub sij hawm rectification yuav cuam tshuam rau kev ntshuam ntawm ib co cobalt raw khoom nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, ua rau nruj mov.Txawm li cas los xij, txhua xyoo kev muab ore los ntawm tes, raws li kev txheeb cais tsis tiav, suav txog li 6% -10% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cobalt raw khoom, uas muaj kev cuam tshuam me ntsis.

Yog li ntawd, cov khoom siv cobalt hauv tsev tseem yuav nruj, thiab nws yuav txuas ntxiv rau tsawg kawg 2-3 lub hlis tom ntej.Raws li kev tshawb fawb thiab kev txiav txim siab, cov khoom siv cobalt raw khoom hauv tsev yog kwv yees li 9,000-11,000 tons ntawm cov hlau, thiab cov khoom siv cobalt hauv tsev yog kwv yees li 1-1.5 lub hlis, thiab cov khoom siv cobalt ib txwm tswj 2- Lub Peb Hlis cov khoom muag.Cov kab mob sib kis kuj tau nce tus nqi zais ntawm cov tuam txhab mining, ua rau cov khoom siv raw khoom cobalt tsis kam muag, nrog kev txiav txim tsawg heev, thiab cov nqi nce.

2. Smelted khoom mov sab:

Noj cobalt sulfate ua piv txwv, Tuam Tshoj tus cobalt sulfate tau pib mus txog qhov sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau thaum Lub Xya Hli, thiab kev lag luam cov khoom lag luam qis cobalt sulfate tau txhawb nqa kev hloov kho ntawm cobalt sulfate cov chaw muag khoom.

Los ntawm Lub Xya Hli 2018 txog Lub Xya Hli 2020 E Tuam Tshoj Cobalt Sulfate Sau Cov Nyiaj tshuav

Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm SMM

3. Terminal xav tau sab

3C digital davhlau ya nyob twg nkag mus rau qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev yuav khoom thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob.Rau cov nroj tsuag cobalt ntsev thiab cobalt tetroxide manufacturers, kev thov txuas ntxiv txhim kho.Txawm li cas los xij, nws tau nkag siab tias cov khoom muag ntawm cobalt raw cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv lub ntsiab downstream roj teeb factories yog tsawg kawg yog 1500-2000 hlau tons, thiab tseem muaj cobalt raw cov ntaub ntawv nkag mus rau qhov chaw nres nkoj successively txhua lub hlis.Cov ntaub ntawv raw khoom ntawm lithium cobalt oxide manufacturers thiab cov chaw tsim khoom roj teeb yog siab dua li ntawm cov dej qab ntsev cobalt thiab cobalt tetroxide.Optimistic, tau kawg, tseem muaj kev txhawj xeeb me ntsis txog kev tuaj txog tom ntej ntawm cobalt raw khoom rau Hong Kong.

Qhov kev thov ternary tab tom pib nce, thiab kev cia siab tau txhim kho nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob.Xav txog tias kev yuav khoom ntawm ternary cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob fais fab yog lub sijhawm ntev, cov nroj tsuag roj teeb tam sim no thiab cov khoom siv ternary tseem nyob hauv Tshuag, thiab tseem tsis muaj qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev yuav khoom rau cov khoom siv raw khoom.Kev txiav txim qis qis tsuas yog maj mam rov qab los, thiab qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov qis dua li ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, yog li cov nqi tseem nyuaj rau kev xa mus.

4. Macro peev inflow, muas thiab cia catalysis

Tsis ntev los no, cov kev pom zoo hauv macroeconomic hauv tsev tau txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab cov peev nyiaj ntau ntxiv tau ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv kev lag luam xav tau rau electrolytic cobalt.Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kawg ntawm kev noj cov khoom kub kub, cov khoom siv hlau nplaum, tshuaj lom neeg thiab lwm yam kev lag luam qhia tias tsis muaj kev txhim kho.Tsis tas li ntawd, kev lag luam cov lus xaiv hais tias kev yuav khoom thiab khaws cia ntawm electrolytic cobalt kuj tseem ua rau muaj kev nce nqi ntawm cobalt nyob ib puag ncig no, tab sis cov xov xwm kev yuav khoom thiab khaws cia tseem tsis tau tsaws, uas xav tias yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam me me rau kev ua lag luam.

Hauv cov ntsiab lus, vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm tus kabmob tshiab tshiab hauv xyoo 2020, ob qho tib si khoom siv thiab kev thov yuav tsis muaj zog.Lub hauv paus ntawm lub ntiaj teb cobalt oversupply tseem tsis hloov pauv, tab sis cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau tuaj yeem txhim kho tau zoo.Kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev thov ntawm cov khoom siv cobalt yuav tsum sib npaug 17,000 tons ntawm hlau.

Ntawm qhov chaw muab khoom, Glencore's Mutanda tooj liab-cobalt mine raug kaw.Qee qhov haujlwm tshiab cobalt raw khoom qub uas tau teem tseg rau kev ua haujlwm xyoo no yuav raug ncua mus rau xyoo tom ntej.Cov khoom siv tes tuav ore kuj tseem yuav txo qis rau lub sijhawm luv.Yog li ntawd, SMM tseem txo qis nws cov khoom siv cobalt raw khoom kwv yees rau xyoo no.155,000 tons ntawm hlau, ib xyoos-rau-xyoo txo ​​ntawm 6%.Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, SMM tau txo qis nws cov kev kwv yees ntau lawm rau lub zog tshiab tsheb, digital thiab lub zog cia, thiab tag nrho lub ntiaj teb cobalt xav tau qis dua rau 138,000 tons ntawm hlau.

2018-2020 thoob ntiaj teb cobalt mov thiab kev thov sib npaug

Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm SMM

Txawm hais tias qhov kev thov rau 5G, chaw ua haujlwm hauv online, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hnav, thiab lwm yam tau nce, qhov kev thov rau lithium cobalt oxide thiab cov khoom siv raw khoom tau nce ntxiv, tab sis kev tsim thiab muag ntawm cov xov tooj ntawm tes nrog cov lag luam siab tshaj plaws cuam tshuam los ntawm kev sib kis. cia siab tias yuav txuas ntxiv zuj zus, diluting ib feem ntawm qhov cuam tshuam ntawm lithium cobalt oxide thiab cov dej ntws nce hauv kev thov rau cobalt raw khoom.Yog li ntawd, nws tsis tau txiav txim siab tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom yuav nce ntau dhau, uas yuav ua rau qeeb hauv cov phiaj xwm hauv qab.Yog li ntawd, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cobalt mov thiab kev thov, tus nqi nce ntawm cobalt nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog txwv, thiab tus nqi ntawm electrolytic cobalt yuav fluctuate ntawm 23-32 lab yuan / ton.